The 2011 Winter Finch Forecast is out...so what does it mean for us? I'm going to try to interpret the forecast on how it might apply to us birdfeeding enthusiasts in east-central New York state.
First, a little background. Ron Pittaway issues an annual Winter Finch Forecast in which he assesses natural food supplies and makes a prediction of the movement of winter finches based on those food supplies. He and his associates have surveyed cone crops of various conifers, specific berry and fruit crops, birch crops, spruce budworm outbreaks; all the foods known to impact movement of the winter finches. The winter finches included in his forecast are the Common (and Hoary) Redpoll, Pine Siskin, Evening Grosbeak, Pine Grosbeak, Purple Finch, and crossbills.
Eastern Hemlock
Ron's report is written from an Ontario, Canada point of view (and is published on the Ontario Field Ornithologists website) and for the most part, he forecasts movement within Canada. Nevertheless, I'll try to read into the forecast to determine whether the winter finches that are most likely to frequent birdfeeders might make their way down to our neck of the woods this winter.
Common (and Hoary) Redpolls are not expected in our area this winter. Birch seeds (their food preference) are plentiful in Canada, from near Hudson Bay to the northern shores of Lake Ontario, so little movement further south is predicted.
Common Redpolls on WBU mesh feeder
February 2008
Small numbers of Pine Siskins may make their way to our area. It was a good breeding year for siskins, so there are lots of birds and just an average spruce cone crop in the far northern reaches of Canada. Siskins may be widespread in Ron's home territory of Ontario, while the good supply of hemlock and spruce cones in our area might bring some of them down to our area.
Pine Siskin
January 2009
Evening Grosbeaks have become somewhat uncommon in our area and every sighting is exciting. Their numbers increase where there are spruce budworm outbreaks, and those outbreaks are expanding in Ontario. They are expecting "another good showing at feeders" in central Ontario and northeast Canada. That might very well bring some to area.
Evening Grosbeaks on WBU Catch-a-Seed Tray
December 2007
Pine Grosbeaks last delighted area birdfeeding enthusiasts in the winter of 2007-08. It was a new yard bird for us when 1 - 4 individuals visited our feeders from late November until early March that winter. We even saw a couple Pine Grosbeaks eating berries from mountain ash trees in a Saratoga Springs parking lot!
They're expecting small numbers of these approachable birds in southern Ontario due to a poor berry crop in the boreal. Decent amounts of mountain ash berries here just might lure them to our area. We can hope!
Pine Grosbeak
February 2008
I'm lucky enough to have Purple Finches breeding in my yard, but I haven't seen much of them since Irene passed through in late August. Keep an eye out for Purple Finches at your feeder since they are expected to head south this year - perhaps to your backyard!
Purple Finches enjoying safflower seed
March 2010
In summary, the food is plentiful across much of the boreal forest so we just don't expect to see the type of winter finch irruptions we had with the siskins in 2008-09 or the redpolls in 2007-08. If we do see any, it looks they will be spread out and in small numbers.
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