I recently read an article about a teacher that tested her ornithology students by having them predict the birds they'd see during a birding excursion. I can't remember where I saw it but I should've written it down because it was really right up my alley. (If you know where I saw the article, please remind me!)
Black-capped Chickadees are almost guaranteed to show up at my feedersFirst she'd have them write down in advance all the birds they expected to see during the outing. After the outing, they'd get points for all the expected birds they did see, but lost points for birds they thought they'd see but didn't, as well as birds they didn't list but did in fact see.
The point of the exercise was to help her students become better birding enthusiasts by encouraging them to think ahead of what birds they would likely see based on location, habitat, time of year, time of day, etc.
In the spirit of this exercise, I've come up with a list of birds that I expect to see this Monday and Tuesday, my first
Project FeederWatch (PFW) count days of the year.
I do have some history to go on. Over the past 5 PFW seasons, this first count period in mid-November is usually kind of slow, marked by visits by all the "regulars", plus perhaps some late migrants and an occasion uncommon visitor. Here's what I've seen on my first count days over the last 5 seasons:
2008/09 11 species (44 individuals)
2007/08 12 species (63 individuals)
2006/07 13 species (62 individuals)
2005/06 10 species (61 individuals)
2004/05 8 species (32 individuals)
With this information in hand and coupled with the fact that feeder activity is JUST beginning to recover from a major slowdown that started in mid-September, here's my list for who I think I'll see this first count period. I predict I'll see only these 11 species:
Black-capped Chickadee
Red-breasted Nuthatch
White-breasted Nuthatch
Hairy Woodpecker
Downy Woodpecker
Blue Jay
Dark-eyed Junco
Tufted Titmouse
Mourning Dove
American Goldfinch
Purple Finch
The dove, Purple Finch and goldfinch are risky since they've all been very absent from my feeders lately. All the others are strong probabilities and/or outright guarantees. I'll consider a visit from a Northern Cardinal, a Sharp-shinned or Cooper's Hawk, or any native sparrow a bonus bird this week.
Northern Cardinals are uncommon visitors in my yardI'll let you know how I fare when I report later on this week. If you give this little exercise a try yourself, let me know how it goes!
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